COVID-19 Data: Different States, Different Trajectories
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 8, 2020
Analysis of the state-wise COVID-19 numbers indicates that the trends in states are varied.  Different states seem to be going in different trajectories compared to where they were a month ago. Here is a look at numbers from six states that contribute to more than 70% of India’s case load.
The prevalence of COVID-19 & the corresponding case numbers are varied across the country. As observed in an earlier story, while India’s Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is comparatively lower than most of the other countries which have a high prevalence of COVID-19 cases, it is not uniform across the country.
In this story, we dig deeper into the numbers reported by few select states that have either reported a high number of cases or displayed extreme trends over the past few weeks. We also correlate these numbers with the number of tests conducted and the number of positive cases.
The source of information is the data released by Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW) as well as respective State governments. In order to minimize the impact of any extremities, 7-day moving average (up to 05 July 2020) is considered for analysis of all the parameters.
Maharashtra – CFR on the decline though the number of daily deaths increase
Maharashtra has reported the highest number of COVID-19 positive cases and accounts for nearly 30% of the total cases recorded in India. The total reported deaths due to COVID-19 in Maharashtra are around 9 thousand which is around 45% of the total COVID-19 related deaths in India.
Gujarat – Despite fewer daily deaths, CFR is the highest in the country
As on 05 July 2020, Gujarat has recorded 1925 COVID-19 related deaths out of the 35 thousand plus positive cases recorded as on that date.
Delhi – No Major increase in the number of New Cases despite significant increase in the number of tests
As per the information provided by Delhi State government, more than 20 thousand tests per day are being conducted since the beginning of July 2020. This is in line with the increasing trend of number of daily tests being conducted from the beginning of June.
Tamil Nadu – Though CFR is still low, it is slowly increasing
The number of new positive cases reported in Tamil Nadu on a daily basis is witnessing an increasing trend. On 01 June, Tamil Nadu reported more than 1 thousand new cases in a day, with the daily number increasing in the ensuing days.
Telangana – Significant increase in the number of new cases as CFR shows a downward trend
As on 05 July 2020, Telangana has conducted over 1.15 lakh tests which resulted in more than 22 thousand COVID-19 positive cases i.e. nearly 20% of the tested cases are positive. The number of tests being conducted have remained at around 3-4 thousand tests from mid-June to end of June. It has increased to more than 5-6 thousand tests per day from the beginning of July.
Karnataka- Increase in both the number of daily new cases and deaths
Similar to Telangana,  Karnataka has also witnessed a surge in the number of new cases being reported in the past 15-20 days.
Varied trends across the states
The trend in new cases &  daily deaths among the states with a large number of COVID-19 cases has shown wide variations. The only uniform trend across the states is that all of them have ramped up their testing numbers.
The variance in the trend is quite evident in certain states. While increase in the number of tests has resulted in increase in number of cases for states like Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, it does not have a similar effect on Delhi which is reporting fewer new cases as well as fewer deaths despite increased testing numbers.
In terms of the CFR,  both Karnataka & Tamil Nadu are witnessing an increasing CFR while Telangana which is also witnessing a surge in new cases managed to significantly decrease CFR.  Tamil Nadu appears to be at the cusp of increasing fatality rates despite one of the lowest CFR in the country in the earlier months.
These varying trends indicate that a one-size-fits-all uniform strategy may not work in a large country like India. State-specific strategies are the need of hour with special focus on the areas that the respective states lack in. There could be also be sharing of best practices where one state could learn from what others are doing well.
Featured Image: COVID-19 Data