2016 elections impact on Rajya Sabha
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 20, 2016
The BJP has won Assam for the first time with a handsome margin while the Congress lost both Kerala & Assam. While this is bad news for Congress, it will not have a significant impact on the numbers in the Rajya Sabha. The NDA cannot expect to gain even a single seat in the Rajya Sabha from these five states, before the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The UPA will lose two seats and the Others will gain two seats from these states by 2019.
Though the BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha election with a clear majority, they have been finding it difficult to pass bills in the Upper House or the Rajya Sabha. Since the Rajya Sabha members are elected by the MLAs in states, Congress had better numbers in 2014 to start with. But with Congress facing successive defeats in various states, this scenario might change very soon. Will the result of the 5 state elections have any impact on the current composition?
The Rajya Sabha members are elected by the method of proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote (STV), very similar to how the members of legislative councils in states are elected. Each state has a fixed number of Rajya Sabha seats. Members keep retiring after their 6 year tenure and elections take place as and when there is a vacancy.
Current Composition of the Rajya Sabha
Out of the 241 members of the Rajya Sabha, 70 belong to the UPA, 66 to the NDA, 96 to others and 9 are nominated. The bulk of the others come from the regional parties like SP, BSP, AIADMK, AITC, BJD, JD(U), CPI(M) etc.
The election results from Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, West Bengal & Puducherry might not have a significant impact on this composition. Let’s look at state by state.
Kerala
Kerala sends 9 members to the Rajya Sabha. Out of the 9, three are due to retire in July 2018 while the rest of the six will retire after 2020. Currently, two of these are held by the UPA while one is held by others (LDF). Based on the current results, the UPA will be able to retain only 1 seat while others will win two seats.
Net change before 2019 Lok Sabha Election: UPA (-1), Others (+1)
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu sends 18 members to the Rajya Sabha. Only 4 of those seats will see a re-election before the 2019 Lok Sabha election. 3 of the 4 seats are currently held by the UPA while one is held by others (AIADMK). Based on current results, UPA will be able to retain only 2 out of the 4 seats while others (AIADMK) will win the rest of the two seats.
Net change before 2019 Lok Sabha Election: UPA (-1), Others (+1)
Puducherry
Puducherry sends only one member to the Rajya Sabha who is currently from AIADMK. His term ends in 2021. Hence there will be no change in the numbers before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Net change before 2019 Lok Sabha Election: UPA (0), Others (0)
West Bengal
West Bengal sends 16 members to the Rajya Sabha. There will be two different re-elections before the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The first one will be held for 5 seats in August 2017. Currently, only one of these seats is held by the UPA while the remaining 4 are held by Others (AITC & CPI(M)). Based on the current results, four of them will be won by AITC while the remaining seat can go to the Congress if the Left parties support it. The second re-election will take place for 5 more seats in April 2018. Four of these are now held by the AITC and the remaining is held by the CPI(M). Based on the current results, AITC can easily retain the four and the fifth one might go to the Congress or the Left depending on their agreement. In effect, there might not any change in the numbers at the national level.
Net change before 2019 Lok Sabha Election: UPA (0), Others (0)
Assam
Assam sends 7 members to the Rajya Sabha. The nearest re-election will happen in June 2019 by when the 2019 Lok Sabha election will be over. Though the BJP led NDA will win a few seats after 2019, they cannot hope to gain any seat before the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
Net change before 2019 Lok Sabha Election: UPA (0), Others (0), NDA (0)
The NDA does not gain
While the Congress has lost both Kerala & Assam in these elections, it would not have a significant impact on the Rajya Sabha numbers from these five states. The NDA won’t be able to gain any seat since Assam will not see any re-election before May 2019. On the whole, the UPA will lose two seats and the others will gain 2 seats in Kerala & Tamil Nadu.