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Viral post misquotes the Muslim fertility rate in India as 4.4 when it is actually 2.36

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A post listing the religion-wise total fertility rates in India is going viral on social media (here, here, here, here, and here). The claim accompanying the graphic suggests that the fertility rate among Muslims in India is 4.4, which is higher than that of other religions. The post also lists the fertility rates for Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, and Buddhists as 1.94, 1.61, 1.88, 1.6, and 1.39, respectively. Through this article let’s fact-check the claim made in the post.

The archived version of this post can be found here.

Claim: The fertility rate among Muslims in India is 4.4, which is higher than that of other religions.

Fact: According to the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS) report (2019–2021), the fertility rates for Muslims and Hindus are 2.36 and 1.94, respectively, while for Sikhs, Christians, Jains, and Buddhists, the rates are 1.61, 1.88, 1.6, and 1.39, respectively. The first NFHS report (1992–1993) recorded the fertility rate for Muslims in India as 4.4. Hence the claim made in the post is MISLEADING.

To determine the religion-wise total fertility rates in India, we reviewed the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), 2019–21 report, released by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in March 2022. According to this report, the fertility rates among different religions in India are as follows: Muslims 2.36, Hindus 1.94, Sikhs 1.61, Christians 1.88, Jains 1.6, and Buddhists 1.39. This data clearly indicates that the fertility rates of Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, and Buddhists are correctly stated in the viral post, while the fertility rate for Muslims in the post is erroneously stated as 4.4. The latest NFHS report lists it as 2.36. The Fifth NFHS (2019–21) report can be viewed here (archived link).

During this search, we found that according to the first NFHS report (1992-1993) (archived link), the fertility rate for Muslims in India was 4.4. From this information, it is clear that the Muslim fertility rate from the first NFHS report (1992–1993) has been compared with figures from the NFHS 2019–2021 data for Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, and Buddhists in order to spread misinformation.

Analysis of various National Family Health Survey reports indicates that the fertility rate among Muslims is higher compared to other religions. However, data from the past two decades shows a significant decline in the fertility rate among Muslims. In fact, the fertility rate among Muslims has decreased more than that of Hindus and other religious groups. The Muslim fertility rate was 4.4 in the first NFHS (1992-93) but it has now decreased to 2.4 in the fifth NFHS (here, here, here, and here).

According to a press release by the Press Information Bureau (PIB), the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) conducts an integrated survey called the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) at intervals of approximately three years. To date, five rounds of the survey have been completed. NFHS provides high-quality, reliable, and comparable data on population dynamics, health indicators, and emerging issues in health and family welfare. This data is crucial for helping policymakers and programme-implementing agencies set benchmarks.

Factly has previously published multiple fact-check articles debunking several posts that shared false data regarding the Muslim population in India (here, here, and here).

To sum it up, according to the latest NFHS report (2019–2021), the fertility rate among Muslims in India is 2.36 not 4.4 as alleged in the viral social media post.

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