Elections for 59 Rajya Sabha seats due in March. Who is going to win how many?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 27, 2018
Elections are due in March for 59 Rajya Sabha seats in 17 states. Based on the current strength of various political parties in the state assemblies, the NDA is likely to gain 8 to 10 seats, while the UPA is likely to lose 6 to 8 seats while others will lose 2 seats.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has released the schedule for biennial elections to 58 Rajya Sabha seats in addition to one bye-election for a seat in Kerala. Who is going a majority of these seats? How many seats will the NDA gain? Here is a short analysis based on the strength of various parties in the respective assemblies.  It is to be noted that the Rajya Sabha elections follow the system of by proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote (STV).
Andhra Pradesh (Number of Vacancies: 3)
Congress currently holds 2 of these seats. The Congress party does not have a single legislator in the state assembly and hence will lose both these seats. Based on the current strength in the state assembly, TDP, an  NDA ally will win 2 of these seats while YSRCP will win one seat.
Net Gain:  NDA (+1), UPA (-2), Others (+1)
Bihar (Number of Vacancies: 6)
All the six seats are currently held by BJP & JD(U). Going by the current strength of the state assembly, the NDA combine can easily retain 3 of these while the RJD on its own would be able to win 2 seats. RJD & Congress together could win the sixth seat provided all the Congress MLAs vote as per the party’s decision.
Net Gain: NDA (-2 or -3), UPA (+2 or +3), Others (0)
Chhattisgarh (Number of Vacancies: 1)
The BJP will retain the lone seat.
Net Gain: NDA (0), UPA (0), Others (0)
Gujarat (Number of Vacancies: 4)
All the four seats are currently held by the BJP. The Congress will gain 2 seats because of its performance in the recent Gujarat elections while the BJP will be able to retain only 2 of the 4 seats it currently holds.
Net Gain: NDA (-2), UPA (+2), Others (0)
Haryana (Number of Vacancies: 1)
BJP will win this lone seat currently held by the Congress.
Net Gain: NDA (+1), UPA (-1), Others (0)
Himachal Pradesh (Number of Vacancies: 1)
The BJP will retain the seat it currently holds.
Net Gain: NDA (0), UPA (0), Others (0)
Karnataka (Number of Vacancies: 4)
Out of the 4 seats, BJP currently holds 2 and Congress holds one seat. Rajeev Chandrasekhar, an independent MP supported by the BJP & JD(S) in 2012 holds the fourth seat. Since the Karnataka assembly elections are scheduled to be held only after these elections, the current strength in the assembly will decide who wins these 4 seats. Congress will definitely win two of the 4 seats while BJP will win one seat. The outcome of fourth seat will depend on the way MLAs of the JD(S) vote.
Net Gain: NDA (-1 or -2), UPA (+1 or +2), Others (0)
Madhya Pradesh (Number of Vacancies: 5)
Both the BJP & Congress will retain the seats they currently hold.
Net Gain: NDA (0), UPA (0), Others (0)
Maharashtra (Number of Vacancies: 6)
The NDA (BJP & Shiv Sena) will most certainly win 4 of the 6 seats while the UPA (Congress & NCP) will be able to retain only 2 of the 4 seats they currently hold.
Net Gain: NDA (+2), UPA (-2), Others (0)
Telangana (Number of Vacancies: 3)
Two of these seats are currently held by the Congress while the 3rd one is held by the TDP, an NDA ally. The TRS is most likely to win all the 3 seats because the Congress does not have enough strength to win a seat on its own.
Net Gain: NDA (-1), UPA (-2), Others (+3)
Uttar Pradesh (Number of Vacancies: 10)
The BJP currently holds only one of these 10 seats. On the back of its landslide win in the UP elections in 2017, the BJP will easily win 8 of the 10 seats while SP is certain to win one. The outcome of the 10th seat will depend on the decision of the BSP and other smaller parties.
Net Gain: NDA (+7), UPA (-1), Others (-6)
Uttarakhand (Number of Vacancies: 1)
BJP will win this lone seat that is currently held by the Congress.
Net Gain: NDA (+1), UPA (-1), Others (0)
West Bengal (Number of Vacancies: 5)
The Trinamool Congress will retain the four seats it currently holds. The Congress with the CPI(M) can win the 5th seat.
Net Gain: NDA (0), UPA (0), Others (0)
Odisha (Number of Vacancies: 3)
The BJD will be able to win all the 3 seats based on its strength in the state assembly.
Net Gain: NDA (0), UPA (0), Others (0)
Rajasthan (Number of Vacancies: 3)
The Congress currently holds 2 of these 3 seats while the BJP holds the remaining one. The BJP will make a clean sweep this time winning all 3 seats because of its strength in the assembly.
Net Gain: NDA (+2), UPA (-2), Others (0)
Jharkhand (Number of Vacancies: 2)
The Congress currently holds one seat while the JMM holds the other. On the back of its victory in the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP will comfortably win one seat. The outcome of the other will depend on whether the opposition is united or not.
Net Gain: NDA (+1 or +2), UPA (-1 or -2), Others (0)
Kerala (Number of Vacancies: 1)
The bye-election is necessitated because of the resignation of M P Veerendra Kumar of the JD (U).  The Left Front will win this seat.
Net Gain: NDA (0), UPA (0), Others (0)