Data: Actual Revenue Receipts of some states matched their budget estimates in 2021-22
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 11, 2022
Data available with the CAG in the form of ‘Monthly Key Indicators’ indicates that while some states managed to surpass their budget estimates for revenue receipts in 2021-22, some states did not. There is no single uniform reason for this trend.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy is apparent in the emerging data from the pandemic period. A fall in government revenues along with the additional expenditure of managing the pandemic has resulted in increased financial stress for the governments.
In an earlier story, we reported the fall in the tax revenues of the Union government. We also highlighted that there is an increasing trend of State governments resorting to borrowings and advances to tide over the pandemic-induced financial stress.
The financial year of 2021-22 marked a recovery compared to the pandemic that hit 2020-21. Although India experienced a more severe second wave of the pandemic in the early part of 2021-22, the restrictions & lockdowns were better managed than the first wave, with a comparatively lesser impact on economic activity.
But how was the recovery in 2021-22? In this two-part series, we look at the revenue earnings of the States during 2021-22, to understand the recovery compared to 2020-21. In the first part, we look at the states who have actual revenue receipts that were more than 95% of their budget estimates for 2021-22.
Methodology: The data submitted by the states & as available on the website of the Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) is considered for the analysis. The data is collated from the ‘Monthly Key Indicators’ report of the respective states as of March 2022 i.e., the end of the financial year 2021-22. Revenue Receipts of the States are used for the analysis. Revenue Receipts include – Tax Revenue, Non-Tax revenue and any Grant-in-aid & contributions received.  The Tax revenues of the states include – GST, Land revenue, Sales Tax, State excise duties, State share in Union taxes & other taxes. The states are categorized based on the proportion of Actual Revenue receipts compared to the budget estimates.
Odisha, Karnataka & Madhya Pradesh have significantly higher actual receipts than the estimates in 2021-22
Five states have reported actual revenue receipts to be more than the budget estimates in 2021-22. Here is a snapshot.
Tax Revenue in 2021-22 was Rs.78.89 thousand as against the estimate of Rs. 67.63 thousand crores. There was a significant increase in non-tax revenue which resulted in an overall increase in revenue receipts. As against the budget estimates of Rs. 20,000 crores of non-tax revenue, the actual receipts were more than Rs. 54 thousand crores. However, the actual breakup of the non-tax revenue was not available to ascertain the reasons for such an increase.
Gujarat, Rajasthan & West Bengal are among the states whose actuals nearly matched the estimates
Gujarat & Himachal Pradesh fell short of their estimates for 2021-22, but only by a smaller margin. Meanwhile, the actual revenue receipts of Rajasthan, West Bengal & Uttarakhand for 2021-22 are more than 95% of the estimates. Here is a snapshot of these states:
In the second part, we will look at the states whose actual revenue receipts were less than 95% of the estimates for 2021-22.