Analysis: The story of FDI inflows of the last 10 years – Which sectors are receiving a Lion’s share?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 31, 2019
In part-1 of a two-part series, we look the
overall FDI inflow of the last 10 years along with sectoral FDI inflow.
On 10 July 2019, the Minister for Commerce andMinistry, provided answers to question asked in Lok Sabha regarding Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) inflows in India. In response to one of the questions, the minister hasprovided the sector wise FDI of the past three years and also reiterated thatIndia continues to rank in the top 10 countries with the highest FDI inflows asper United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’s WorldInvestment Report (WIR) in 2017,2018 and 2019.
In a two part series, we analyse the FDI inflows to India over the past decade includingthe trend of FDI inflows across various key sectors, source of the FDI inflowetc.
Equity and reinvestment are major component of FDI inflow
Before getting into the sector wise FDI inflows and the source of FDI inIndia, let us first understand the different components of FDI inflow.
The total FDI inflow comprises of three main components:
Consistent increase in Annual FDI inflows over the decades barring
couple of years
The FDI inflows for financial year (FY) 2009-10 was $37,745 million and overthe ensuing decade, the FDI inflows have recorded a steady growth every year.For FY 2018-2019, the inflows were $64,375 million i.e. 70.55% higher than theannual inflows in 2009-10.
The FDI inflows decreased compared to the previous year only on twooccasions, FY 2010-11 and FY 2012-13 where they fell by 8% and a sharp 26%respectively. It can be noted that the highest annual increase over the decadewas recorded in the year between these two i.e. FY 2011-12, where the FDIinflows showed an annual increment of 34%. Few Big-ticket deals in the Oil & Gas sectors was said to have contributed for the higher FDIinflow in spite of the lack of FDI reforms during that period.
After a meteoric annual growth during 2014-15 and 2015-16, the FDI inflowsonly increased by single digit percentage points annually over the last threeyears (8%, 1% and 6% respectively between 2016-17 and 2018-19).
Service Sector, Hardware & Software, Trading and Automobile are the
consistent high performing sectors
Service sector has been always had a major share of the FDI inflowsevery year. Apart from two lean years in 2013-14 & 2014-15, this sector hasalways recorded a share of minimum 10% of the total FDI received annually.Especially during the ensuing four years after the lean period, FDI in Servicesector has a share of 14.5%, 14.4%, 11% and 14.2% respectively. The FDI inservice sector has grown by 181% during these four years. i.e., From $3252.97million in 2014-15 to $9157.54 million in 2018-19. Services under Banking,Insurance, Non-Finance & Business Outsourcing, Finance, R&D,Technology, Testing, Analysis etc. are categorized under service sector.
FDI into Computer (Hardware & Software) sector has increased from$918.66 million in 2009-10 to $6415.21 million in 2018-19. The annual inflowhas grown by more than 500% in just 5 years between 2014-15 and 2018-19.
Trading sector includes businesses dealing with trading related toexports, bulk imports, cash & carry whole sale trading, hi-tech goods,medical & diagnostic items etc. The FDI inflows last year were recorded at$4,462 million compared to $578.61 million a decade ago.
Telecommunication sector has also received consistent high volume of FDIannually. Although there was a dip in the FDI received last year (2018-2019),this was after high volume of FDI inflows the previous two year.
In recent years, FDI inflows have increased in Education,
Non-Conventional Energy, Hospital & Diagnostic sectors
FDI into Hospitals & Diagnostic centers has shown a gradual andconsistent increase all through the decade. In 2009-2010, the inflow was $135.91million and has shown an incremental increase in the annual inflow every year.Last year, there was the greatest increase in an annual year with 47% higherFDI inflows compared to 2017-18.
Education Sector has also started receiving higher FDI over the decade,with a dip in the inflows during 2013-15. Last year, has an exponentialincrease in this sector with FDI inflows at $776.73 million compared to earlieryear’s $285.75 million. Regulations allow for 100% FDI in education. Vocationand Technical education receive most of the foreign investment.
Non-Conventional Energy sector FDI inflows have increased annually since2014-15, more than doubling up on yearly figures. In the year 2012-13, thissector received FDI to the tune of $1,146 million, which was only surpassed inthe last two years i.e. 2017-18 & 2018-19.
Hotel & Tourism, Construction, Drugs & Pharmaceuticals among the
sectors receiving inconsistent FDIs annually.
The FDI inflows are dependent on various factors apart from theregulation and policies of the government. While positive governmentinitiatives and environment are influencing factors, the actual deals can varyannually. This results in irregular annual FDI inflows in few sectors.
Hotel & Tourism sector received highest FDI over the decade in2012-13 with $3336.68 million followed by last year 2018-19 ($1310.93 million).It had comparatively lean annual inflows in 2010-11 ($320.73 million) and2017-18 ($408.75 million).
The categorization of construction industry has varied the FDI numbersof the government. It being reported as – Construction Activities, Housing& Real Estate, Construction Development, Construction (Infrastructure) etc.During 2009-10 (15%), 2011-12 (8%) and 2015-16 (8.3%), this sector had majorcontribution to the FDI inflow albeit with some lean years in between.
The FDI into Cement and Gypsum sector has been very volatile over thelast decade. During 2016-17 it received $2,130 million, encapsulated betweenyears of less FDI – 2015-16 ($19.78 million), 2017-18 ($19.44 million) and2018-19 ($17.61 million).
Drugs & Pharma sector FDI inflows have also been highly inconsistentover the years. In 2011-12, it received $7,311 million in FDI with the nexthighest in the immediate next year with $2,115 million.