Making Sense of the Assembly Bye-Election Results

Out of the 10 constituencies that went for bye-polls, the BJP won 5 with a net gain of 2 and the Congress held onto its 3 seats.

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The results of the bye-elections to ten (10) different Assembly constituencies were declared yesterday. These 10 constituencies are in eight (8) different states. The BJP won 5 of these, Congress won 3 and Trinamool Congress & the JMM won one each.

Himachal Pradesh (Bhoranj)

Bhoranj in Himachal Pradesh was held by the BJP before this Election. The BJP retained this seat though their vote share has gone down by more than 7%. Even the Congress’s vote share has gone down this time around because of an independent who polled close to 10% of the total vote.

Year	Polling Percentage	BJP Vote share	Congress Vote Share	Winner
2012	70.33	59.51	36.82	BJP
2017	61.47	52.16	34.46	BJP

Karnataka (Gundlupet, Nanjangud)

Both Gundlupet & Nanjangud were held by the Congress. The Congress retained both these seats and increased its vote share in both the seats. The reason why the BJP’s vote share in 2013 was very low is because former BJP CM Yeddyurappa had floated a regional outfit, the KJP in 2013 and KJP won a substantial vote share in both these places in 2013. The JD(S) also contested in Nanjangud in 2013, but this time it was a straight fight between the Congress & the BJP.

Year	Polling Percentage	BJP Vote share	Congress Vote Share	Winner
2013 (Gundlupet)	85.31	1.23	45.42	Congress
2017 (Gundlupet)	87.08	45.37	51.59	Congress
2013 (Nanjangud)	76.21	5.02	36.01	Congress
2017 (Nanjangud)	77.45	41.5	55.15	Congress

Madhya Pradesh (Ater, Bandhavgarh)

The BJP & the Congress held one seat each in Madhaya Pradesh. Both the parties retained their respective seats. In Ater, the BJP substantially improved its vote share and lost by a whisker. The Congress also improved its vote share here. The absense of a BSP candidate who polled more than 17% in 2013 resulted in a two-way fight between the Congress & the BJP. In Bandhavgarh, the BJP won comfortably and both the parties increased its vote share, again thanks to BSP not contesting.

Year	Polling Percentage	BJP Vote share	Congress Vote Share	Winner
2013 (Ater)	58.21	30.19	40.29	Congress
2017 (Ater)	58.30	47.31	48.01	Congress
2013 (Bandhavgarh)	75.68	46.57	33.58	BJP
2017 (Bandhavgarh)	67.24	54.95	36.13	BJP

Rajasthan (Dholpur)

The BSP won this seat in 2013 elections with a vote share of close to 38%. With the BSP not choosing to contest this time, the entire BSP vote seems to have gone to the BJP and it increased its vote share by a whopping 35%.

Year	Polling Percentage	BJP Vote share	Congress Vote Share	Winner
2013	81.34	26.82	30.87	BSP
2017	77.14	61.79	35.69	BJP

West Bengal (Kanthi Dakshin)

The Trinamool Congress won this seat in 2016. This time around, it won handsomely with an increased vote share. But the real story of this election is BJP’s second place finish. In 2016, the CPI had won 34.22% vote and was in the second place. This time around, it has been relegated to the third place with only 10.21% vote share. The BJP gained more than 22% vote compared to 2016.

Year	Polling Percentage	BJP Vote share	Trinamool Congress Vote share	Winner
2016	84.91	8.76	53.72	Trinamool Congress
2017	82.08	30.97	55.89	Trinamool Congress

Jharkhand (Littipara)

This seat was won the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in 2014 with a vote share of 45.93%. The JMM retained this seat with a 46.39% vote share. The BJP improved its vote share, but could not win. The Congress did not contest this time around.

Year	Polling Percentage	BJP Vote share	Congress Vote share	Winner
2014	75.96	28.78	8.5	JMM
2017	74.28	37.26	Did not contest	JMM

Delhi (Rajouri Garden)

The real story of this round of bye-elections is from Delhi. In 2015, the AAP won this seat with a vote share of 46.55%. The Akali Dal candidate (BJP’s ally in 2015) won 38.04% votes while the Congress could win only 12% vote. This time around, the Akali Dal candidate contested on a BJP ticket and won with a vote share of 51.99%. Last time winner the AAP has been relegated to the 3rd place with just 13.12% vote and forfeited its deposit. The Congress on the other hand recovered from its 2015 drubbing and polled 33.23% vote. It has to be noted that that overall polling percentage in 2017 decreased by over 25% compared to 2015.

Year	Polling Percentage	BJP Vote share	AAP Vote share	Winner
2015	72.36	38.04	46.55	AAP
2017	46.47	51.99	13.12	BJP

Assam (Dhemaji)

The BJP won this seat in 2016 with a vote share of 40.9%. It retained this seat with an increased vote share. The Congress also increased its vote share by over 14% since it was a two-way fight between the Congress & the BJP this time around.

Year	Polling Percentage	BJP Vote share	Congress Vote Share	Winner
2016	80.80	40.90	29.66	BJP
2017	68.09	50.13	43.95	BJP

The BJP gains, Congress holds on and other lose

The BJP which held only 3 out of these 10 seats before this election has won 5 seats now gaining 2, one each from the AAP and BSP. The Congress on the other hand was able to hold on to the 3 seats it held before this election. The AAP & the BSP lost their seat while the Trinamool Congress & the JMM retained their respective seat.