Stories, Trade, USA
 

Data: India-USA Trade Increased Consistently Since 2007 Irrespective of The Party in Power

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As Donald Trump is sworn in as the new President of the United States of America, concerns about the impact of his trade & tariff policies on India-USA trade have taken centre stage. Data from 2007 to 2024 indicates that India-USA trade has consistently increased irrespective of the party in power in both nations.

The recently concluded United States of America (USA) elections, as in the past, have drawn global attention, as the outcome has global ramifications. Republican Donald Trump emerged victorious, securing 312 electoral college votes defeating Kamala Harris of the Democratic party who could win only 226 electoral votes. Trump’s victory in several key battleground states, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, contributed significantly to his victory. However, the popular vote was closer with Trump securing 49.8% of the vote, while Harris garnered 48.3%. This victory marked Trump’s return to the White House, making him the first U.S. president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland.

Since his return to power, some of Trump’s decisions have sparked widespread criticism. These include the cancellation of birthright citizenship for children born in the USA, granting pardons to approximately 1,500 individuals involved in the 06 January 2021 incidents at the U.S. Capitol, withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change — decisions that have drawn international concern. The WHO, in particular, expressed regret over the withdrawal. These policy shifts have raised questions about the trajectory of U.S. domestic and foreign policies under Trump’s leadership.

India, which has historically maintained good relations with the USA irrespective of the party in power, has responded with optimism. India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM), S. Jaishankar, represented the country during Trump’s official assumption of the presidency on 20 January 2025. He noted that the new U.S. administration under Trump was willing to build on the foundations established during his first term. According to Jaishankar, there is a strong degree of trust and a high level of convergence of interests between India and the U.S. The trajectory of several key issues, including economic and trade relations, immigration laws, and other key areas of bilateral interest, remains to be seen.

Against this backdrop, we look at the trade trends between India and the USA over the last many years. The data used for this analysis is sourced from Dataful’s country-wise exports and imports datasets, curated from data published by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MoCI).

Between 2007 & 2024, India’s Exports to USA have been consistently higher than Imports

As per the MoCI’s data, India imports and exports approximately 98 different types of goods and commodities (classified under the 2-digit Harmonized System – HS code). In 2007, the value of imports and exports of these goods and commodities with the USA stood at 79 thousand crores and 83 thousand crores rupees, respectively, reflecting a trade surplus (exports more than imports) of 4 thousand crore rupees. In terms of USD, the total values of imports and exports in 2007 were 18,502 million USD and 18,533 million USD, respectively.

By 2015, the trade balance grew to 121 thousand crores rupees, with the total value of imports and exports amounting to 137 thousand crores and 258 thousand crores rupees, respectively. In terms of USD, the trade balance was approximately 18,947 million USD, with total imports and exports valued at 21,324 million USD and 40,271 million USD, respectively.

Without adjusting for inflation, the growth rates of imports and exports between 2007 and 2015 in Indian rupees were 72% and 210%, respectively, while in USD, the growth rates were 21% and 117%.

In 2024 (up to November), the value of India’s imports and exports with the USA was 320 thousand crores and 616 thousand crores rupees, respectively, resulting in a trade surplus of 296 thousand crore rupees. In USD, these values correspond to 38,338 million USD and 73,691 million USD, respectively, with a trade surplus of 35,353 million USD. Between 2015 and 2024, the growth rates of imports and exports were 134% and 138%, respectively, in Indian rupees, while in USD, the growth rates were 79% and 82%.

A year-on-year (y-o-y) comparison between 2007 and 2023 reveals that the value of imports in Indian rupees was lower than the previous years during 2009, 2014, 2020, and 2023, while the values of exports reduced compared to previous years in 2009, 2015, 2020, and 2023. In terms of USD, the values of imports decreased in 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2020, and 2023, while exports saw declines in 2009, 2015, 2020, and 2023.

The y-o-y values for 2023 and 2024 have not been compared due to the non-availability of data for December 2024.

Despite a decline in certain years, the overall trend in the value of imports and exports between India and the USA has shown consistent growth from 2007 to 2024, irrespective of the party at the helm either in India or the USA.

No notable difference in Monthly trade between 2023 & 2024

Unlike India, the electoral process in the USA does not have a specific election period. In the USA, election campaigns typically begin a year or more before election day, which falls on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every four years. Donald Trump became the presumptive nominee for the Republican presidential candidacy in March 2024, with his formal nomination by the Republican Party announced in July 2024.

Considering these timelines, we analysed monthly import and export figures between India and the USA from January to November during 2023 and 2024 to examine whether there is any notable change in trade owing to political changes in both countries.

The total value of imports in January 2023 and 2024 stood at 33 thousand crore rupees and 20 thousand rupees, respectively, marking a 41% decrease in January 2024 compared to January 2023. Exports, on the other hand, showed a 5% increase, rising from 48 thousand crore rupees in 2023 to 50 thousand crore rupees in 2024.

Overall, the monthly import values for 2024 showed a decline during January to March, remained relatively stable in May, August, and September, and increased during other months compared to the same months in 2023. For exports, apart from declines in August and November, all other months in 2024 showed an increase compared to 2023. These trends in import and export values remained consistent even when analysed in terms of USD.

In other words, data does not indicate any notable change in the India-USA trade despite elections in both nations.

Top 10 products account for 77% and 67% of the total value of Imports and Exports, respectively

Among the 98 different types of goods and commodities imported to India from the USA between 2007 and 2024 (up to November), Mineral Fuels, Oils and their products, Natural or Cultured Pearls/Stones and their products, and Nuclear Reactors, Boilers and their parts have been the top three products in terms of their net value. In the case of exports, it is pearls & stones in the first position followed by pharmaceutical products occupying the second position.

The cumulative value of the top 10 goods and commodities imported from the USA between 2007 and 2023 accounted for 77% of the total value of imports, while the top 10 goods and commodities exported accounted for 67% of the total value of the same.

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