COVID-19 2nd Wave: What do numbers look like in UP, Delhi,AP
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 6, 2021
In continuation of our previous story on the 2nd wave of COVID and the broad trends in Maharashtra, Karnataka & Kerala, we look at the states of UP, Delhi, AP, Tamil Nadu and others in this story. Each state is reporting a different trend on various parameters. Here are the details.
After reporting more than 4 lakh new COVID-19 cases in a single day on 30 April 2021, the number of daily news has been less than 4 lakh in the last few days.  As highlighted in the previous story analyzing the trends in few of the states, this slight decrease can be attributed to an extent to the fall in number of cases in Maharashtra. The state continues to report a downward trend and is expected to further improve with specific lockdown measures in continuation of the earlier lockdown initiated based on the prevailing situations in different cities & districts.
Meanwhile, the lockdown measures initiated in Karnataka starting 27 April 2021, have not yet shown a discernible impact on the COVID-19 case numbers, with the state reporting second-ever highest single day COVID-19 positive cases on 04 May 2021. As for Kerala, the trend highlighted in the earlier story continues, with around 37 thousand cases reported on 04 May after lower numbers were reported over the weekend.
Apart from these states, there are other states that are reporting relatively higher numbers on a daily basis. In this second part of the story, we take a look at few of these states.
In UP, the number of new daily cases shows a decline, but deaths are increasing
The most populated state in the country, Uttar Pradesh (UP) currently has the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases with around 13.68 lakh cases reported so far. When compared to the first wave, the number of new daily cases being reported in the state is more prominent among the states.
The state reported a 7-day average of around 1.3 thousand cases by the beginning of April 2021, which increased by nearly 10 times by mid-April. By the end of April 2021, around 34 thousand cases per day were being reported. In fact, the highest number of cases in UP were reported on 29 April 2021 when more than 35 thousand new cases were reported.
Since then, the number of new cases has seen a declining trend with around 25 thousand cases reported on 04 May 2021.
It has to be noted that these trends are based on the information furnished by the official government sources. However, there are news reports of under-reporting in UP as is the case many other states.  The official available data for UP indicates that the state may be in early phases of recovery akin to the trend observed in Maharashtra.
Delhi shows early signs of flattening with fewer cases and increased recoveries
One of the states which has been always in the news during the second wave of COVID-19 is Delhi. Being the National Capital Region, the situation in Delhi has received prominent national & international media coverage.
This does reflect in the numbers being reported by the official sources. The state started reporting around 10 thousand daily cases by 10 April 2021. It has to be noted that only around one thousand new daily cases were being reported during the last week of March 2021. By the last week of April, the 7-day average for the number of new daily cases was around 25 thousand i.e., an increase of 25 times within a month.  Currently the average is around 22 thousand cases in a day.
A.P & Tamil Nadu still reporting an increasing trend of new COVID-19 cases
Apart from Karnataka, which is yet to reach its peak, two other southern states i.e., Andhra Pradesh (AP) & Tamil Nadu (TN) are also reporting an increasing trend of COVID-19 cases.
Despite the similarity in the broad trends, variances do exist between the two states on various other indicators.
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Based on the trends for both AP & TN, it can be said that the states are yet to reach their peak.  The recent State election activity in Tamil Nadu could be a contributing factor for the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the state.
Tamil Nadu has recently come-up with new lockdown rules, so is the case with Andhra Pradesh which has come up with more stringent lockdown measures. It remains to be seen if these lockdown measures would eventually ensure reduction in the case numbers.
W.B & Chhattisgarh show higher recoveries in proportion to the new cases, while the number of tests in Telangana has reduced
Apart from these states, here is a snapshot of other prominent and larger states that have reported higher COVID-19 numbers:
This is a snapshot of a few of the states reporting higher numbers. While lower numbers are being reported in the last few days, it remains to be seen if the trend holds in the coming weeks.
With few of the major states starting to peak, we could witness an increase in cases in the coming few days to weeks.  However, concerns remain about under-reporting & reduced testing in states.
Featured Image: COVID-19 2nd Wave