Between 2001 and 2011, absolute population of Muslims & Christians in the 0-9 age group increased while that of Hindus decreased﻿
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 12, 2019
Population in the 0-9 years’ age group
gives a better idea of population growth since these are people born within the period of the census exercise. As per the 2011 census data, the absolute population of both Muslims & Christians in the 0-9 age group increased while the population of Hindus in this age group decreased compared to the 2001 census.
Population growth rate is a key measureto identify the increase in population over a period of time. Factly hadearlier written about the population growth rates across the country at district level and among the various religious communities.
The growth of population is influencedby the number of births as well the number of deaths over a period of time,with the net value reflecting in the population growth rate. In this story, weanalyse the actual number of people that are being added to the population, orthose in the 0-9 age group in different parts of India as well as from differentreligious communities.
To measure the number of people added overa decade, we have considered the population within the age group of 0-9 years’as per both 2001 and 2011 census, as these are born during theintervening decade.
Share of population in the 0-9 Years
age group declines across religious communities
The share of population within 0-9years age group has come down in 2011 census compared to 2001 census. The share of population in the 0-9-years’ agegroup as per 2001 census was 23.2%, while it reduced to 19.8% as per the 2011census. This reduction in the share of this age group is consistent across allthe religious communities.
As per 2001 Census, among the Hindus,22.8% were in the 0-9 years’ age group which reduced to 19.3% in 2011. In thecase of Muslims, the share of those in the 0-9 years’ age group was 27.2% in2001, but has reduced 23.8% as per 2011 census. The same is true among otherreligious communities. Of all the religious communities, as per 2011 census,the share of those in the 0-9 years age group is more than the national averageof 19.8% only in the case of Muslims.
Increase in the absolute population of
0-9 age group observed among Muslims & Christians
As per the census in 2001, populationwithin the age group of 0-9 was around 23.87 crores which increased to 23.97crores in 2011, an increase of around 10 lakhs. This comparative increase canbe attributed to the increase in the corresponding numbers among Muslims andChristians.
The population of Muslims in the 0-9 agegroup was 4.09 crores as per 2011 census, up from 3.76 crores as per the 2001census, an increase 33 lakhs. Similarly, in the case of Christians, thepopulation in the 0-9 age group as per 2001 census was 47.14 lakhs whichincreased to 48.9 lakhs in 2011, an increase of 1.76 lakhs.
Meanwhile, in the case of Hindus, thepopulation in the 0-9 age group as per 2001 census was 18.84 crores whichreduced to 18.61 crores in 2011, a decrease of 23 lakhs. A similar decreasing trendis observed among other religious communities.
Bihar, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Madhya
Pradesh witness increase in the population of 0-9 age group
Among the states, Bihar saw anexponential increase in population of 0-9 age group in 2011 census compared tothat of 2001 census. As per 2001 census, the population in the 0-9-years’ agegroup was 2.38 crores in Bihar, which increased to 2.78 crores as per 2011census i.e. an increase of nearly 40 Lakhs. This increase is observed across allthe major religious communities within Bihar. The comparative increase in Hindupopulation in this age group was 30.7 lakhs and Muslim population in this agegroup grew by 8.33 lakhs.
In the case of Jharkhand, thepopulation in the 0-9 age group increased by 6.12 lakhs between 2001 &2011. Of this Hindu population increased by 3.26 lakhs and the Muslimpopulation increased by 1.55 lakhs. Similar population increase across thecommunities is observed in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh along withJammu & Kashmir.
West Bengal and erstwhile Andhra Pradeshare among the bigger states who saw a significant decrease in the population of0-9 years age group. In Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana), as per 2001census the population in this age group was 1.56 crores while it decreased to1.35 crores as per 2011 census i.e. a reduction of 21 lakhs. Similarly, WestBengal’s population in this age group was 1.71 crores in 2001 and it decreasedto 1.55 crores in 2011 i.e. decrease of 15 lakhs. The decrease in populationfor this age group was consistent across all the religious communities in thesetwo states. In the case of Andhra Pradesh, 95% of this decrease is among theHindus.
In few other states, the trend ofchange in population differed between the communities. In Uttar Pradesh, the populationin the 0-9 age group decreased by 1.74 lakhs between 2001 & 2011. However, thepopulation of Muslims in this age group increased by 4.71 lakhs whereas thepopulation of Hindus decreased by 7.34 lakhs. Another such state was Assam, wherethere was increase of 1.19 lakh, in the population of 0-9 years’ age group, largelydue to rise in Muslim population in this age group. Muslim population in thisage group increased by 3.87 lakhs offsetting the decrease in Hindu populationby 2.77 lakhs.
Fertility rates have reduced across
communities as per 2011 census, but still highest among Muslims
The national total fertility rate orTFR among married women as per 2001 census was 3.03 while this has reduced to2.69 by 2011 census. TFR indicates the average number of children expected tobe born per woman during her entire span of reproductive period.
This decrease in the fertility rate isobserved across all the religious communities. The fertility rate among theHindus in 2001 was 2.97 which reduced to 2.64. Although, the fertility rateamong the Muslim community is still the highest, the TFR among Muslims has decreasedto 3.14 in 2011 compared to 3.52 in 2001.
The TFR has decreased across all the states. States like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Chhattisgarh continue to have higher TFR than the national average, but even they have a reported a lower TFR compared to 2001 census.  Significant change in the TFR is observed in West Bengal where it decreased by 0.51 of which the fertility rate among Hindus reduced by 0.51 and among Muslims by 0.58.
Other larger states with significantchange in fertility rates are
Even as per the Sample Registration System (SRS) report of 2017, All-India TFR for 2015-17reduced to 2.2 compared to 2.8 during 2005-07.
Decreasing TFR is good news, but high TFR
in some states & among Muslims still a concern
As noted above, the decreasing trend in TFR across the country is good news.  However, the TFR in some states & the Muslim community is still higher than the national average and also the replacement rate. Replacement rate is TFR at which women give birth to enough babies to sustain population levels. If the current decreasing trend continues, the TFR in these states may also reach the replacement levels in the near future. Decreasing fertility rates would not give rise to any presumptive change in the population dynamics.
Featured Image: Absolute population of Muslims & Christians