(30 January 2023) Government Data Roundup: RBI’s ‘State Finances- A Study of Budgets’, EPFO Payroll data, CPI Numbers Among The Data/Reports Released Recently

The 21^st edition of the fortnightly government roundup covers data/reports released by the RBI, MoSPI, Labour Bureau among others.

In this 21^st edition of fortnightly government data roundup, we look at the State Finances- a study of budgets by RBI, Primary (Urban) Co-operative Banks’ Outlook 2021-22, RBI Bulletin for January 2023, All-India Consumer Price Index Numbers For Agricultural and Rural labourer’s – December 2022, EPFO Payroll Data, Consumer Price Index Numbers for Rural, Urban and Combined for December 2022, Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production for November 2022 and Payroll reporting- a formal employment perspective for November 2022. Key publications in the last fortnight from 14 to 27 January 2023 have been covered in this story.

In addition, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released consultation papers on ‘License Fee and Policy matters of DTH Services’, and ‘Telecommunication Infrastructure Sharing, Spectrum Sharing, and Spectrum Leasing’. These are open for comments till 13 February 2023 and 10 February 2023 respectively. Further, the International Financial Services Centers Authority notified the framework for disclosures by the Fund Management Entities (FMEs) which intend to launch the ESG scheme. 

State Finances- A study of Budgets

Brief about the Report:

The RBI released its annual publication, ‘State Finances- A study of Budgets 2022-23’ recently. The report provides information on the assessment of finances of the State Governments for 2022-23 against the actual and revised provisional accounts for 2020-21, and 2021-22 respectively. The theme for this year’s publication is ‘Capital Formation in India – The Role of the States’.

Key Findings:

• The debt of the states as a percentage of GDP is budgeted to reduce from 31.1 percent in 2020-21 to 29.5 percent in 2022-23. Even though there is an improvement, the ratio is still higher than the 20 percent threshold fixed by the FRBM Review Committee in 2018.
• The gross fiscal deficit (GFD) of the states as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is budgeted to decline from 4.1 percent in 2020-21 to 3.4 percent in 2022-23. This indicates a great improvement after the deterioration of financial health in the wake of COVID-19.
• Compared to the previous three years, states have budgeted higher capital outlay in 2022-23. This is a positive sign, and if the governments are going to mainstream capital planning rather than treating them as residuals, it will help in the creation of productive assets in the education, health, and infrastructure sectors.
• A Capex buffer fund must be created whenever the flow of revenues is strong to ensure a smooth and quality flow of expenditure through the economic cycle.
• States must continue focusing on creating a friendly ecosystem for the private sector to thrive in. Additionally, inter-state businesses and trades must be encouraged and facilitated to realize the spill-over effects of state capex across the nation.

Primary (Urban) Co-operative Banks’ Outlook 2021-22

Brief about data and findings:

The ninth annual publication of the ‘Primary (urban) co-operative Banks outlook 2021-22 contains the financial accounts of Scheduled and Non-Scheduled Primary (Urban) Co-operative Banks (UCBs) for the financial year 2021-22. It provides information on key indicators such as profit and loss, non-performing assets, priority sector advances and important financial ratios such as capital adequacy, employee productivity and profitability.

Key findings:

• The total number of UCBs fell from 1534 in 2021 to 1514 in 2022. A major decline can be seen in the number of non-scheduled UCBs.
• The cash in hand for all UCBs as a percentage of total assets increased from 0.89 percent in 2021 to 0.94 in 2022. Similarly, balances with RBI have also improved from 2.20 percent to 2.47 percent during the same period.
• The deposits as a percentage of total liabilities fell from 80.10 in 2021 to 78.92 in 2022, while the borrowings improved from 0.77 percent to 0.85 percent during the same period.
• The gross NPA ratio (%) fell from 12.10 percent in 2021 to 9.75 percent in 2022, while the provisioning coverage ratio (%) increased from 58.91 % to 62.88 % during the same period. 
• 86% of all the UCBs have the Capital to Risk Assets Ratio (CRAR) above 12. Around 6% of all UCBs have CRAR below 9%. The RBI guidelines for Tier-1 UCBs specify a minimum CRAR of 9% while it is 12% for Tier 2 to Tier 4 UCBs.
• Advances to the priority sector and the weaker section as a percentage of total advances stood at 55% in 2022 as compared to 51% in 2021. The loans to weaker sections among the priority sector advances improved from 10.74% to 11.07% during the same period.

RBI Bulletin- January 2023

Brief about the report:

The RBI published its monthly bulletin for January 2023. This bulletin has information on current statistics, three speeches and five articles. The five articles are as below.

• State of the Economy
• Productivity Growth in India: An Empirical Assessment
• What Drives Start-up Fundraising in India? 
• Open Market Operations in India – An Appraisal
• Supply of Banking Services and Credit Offtake: Evidence from Aspirational District Programme in the Eastern Area.

Key Highlights

• On the state of the Indian economy, the article highlights that in India, it appears that the easing of commodity prices and other costs in the face of high revenues has improved corporate performance. With inflation now within the acceptable range and leading indicators showing that the current account deficit will continue to decrease for the rest of 2022 and 2023, macroeconomic stability is being strengthened.
• On the assessment of productivity growth, it is pointed out that the resource reallocation from low to high-productivity sectors was responsible for 6% of output growth and 63% of overall productivity growth between 2001 and 2019. Growth in total factor productivity as a whole increased from 1.33 percent in 2001–10 to 2.72 percent in 2011–19, primarily as a result of technological advancements within industries. The three best-performing industries in terms of their contribution to total productivity are textiles, machinery, and business and financial services.
• On the Startup fundraising, it is observed that there is an upward shift from 2014. Backed by the Start-up India initiative, the long-term start-up fund is driven by excess return offered by the domestic equity market, while at a firm level, unconventional factors such as the educational background of founders were found to be a reason behind such funding.
• On the open-market operations (OMOs), it is found that US Treasury yields have a greater impact on domestic long-term yields, and OMOs still remains a potent tool to stabilize long-term interest rates in accordance with the monetary policy.

All-India Consumer Price Index Numbers for Agricultural and Rural labourers – December 2022

Brief about data and findings:

The Labour Bureau had been compiling CPI data for farm laborers since September 1964. The new series of CPI Numbers for (i) Agricultural and (ii) Rural Labourers (base 1986-87=100) replaced the previous series on base 1960-61=100 with effect from November 1995. These index statistics are compiled each month by the Field Operations Division (FOD) of the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), which periodically collects price information from 600 sample villages selected from 20 States.

Key highlights:

• The All-India Consumer Price Index Number for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) remained stationary at 1167 points while for Rural Laborers (Base: 1986-87=100), it increased by 1 point for the month of December 2022, reaching 1179 points.
• The increase in the prices of medicines, bus fares, barber charges, etc. were the main factors contributing to the rise in the general index of Agricultural Labourers and Rural Labourers, rising by 0.91 & 0.93 points, respectively.
• The index varied differently in each state. In 9 States, there was a rise of 1 to 7 points for Agricultural Labourers. Himachal Pradesh is at the bottom of the index table with 911 points, while Tamil Nadu is at the top with 1350 points.
• In 9 States, there was a rise of 1 to 8 points for rural labourers. Himachal Pradesh is at the bottom of the index table with 961 points, while Tamil Nadu is at the top with 1338 points.
• Among the states, Rajasthan witnessed the largest increase in the Consumer Price Index Numbers for Agricultural Labourers (7 points) and Kerala witnessed the highest increase for Rural Labourers (8 points), and Manipur registered a maximum decline of 9 points each.

EPFO Payroll Data

Brief about the paper:

The EPFO has been releasing monthly payroll data from April 2018 covering a period from September 2017. It contains the details of the new subscribers joining the EPF scheme, the number of subscribers exiting the scheme, and the number of exited subscribers who re-joined and resubscribed. This data is available across different age groups. The data on net new payroll is available for both state-wise as well as age groups.

Key highlights:

• EPFO has added 16.26 lakh net members in the month of November 2022. The data indicates an increase of 25.67% in net additions compared to the previous month in October 2022.
• The number of new EPF subscribers increased from 7.67 lakhs in October 2022 to 8.99 lakh in November 2022. Similarly, the number of EPF subscribers who exited declined from 2.13 lakh to 1.28 lakh during the same period.
• The net new EPF subscribers declined from July 2022 to October 2022. However, in November 2022, the number of net new EPF subscribers grew to 14 lakh from 11 lakh in October 2022.
• In the age bracket of fewer than 18 years, Tamil Nadu topped the net new payroll, while for the age group 18-35 years, Maharashtra stood first. 
• Among the industries, ‘Expert Services’ topped among all age brackets in the net new payroll, accounting for more than 40% of the total member addition.

Consumer Price Index for Rural, Urban, and combined for December 2022

Brief about the report:

The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for Rural (R), Urban (U), and Combined (C) and the All-India Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Base 2012=100 is released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) every month. The price information is gathered from 1114 urban markets and 1181 villages that span all States and UTs.

Key findings:

• The final CPI combined (Rural+ Urban) general rate stood at 5.88% for November 2022, while December 2022’s provisional combined stood at 5.72%. This marks an increase from December 2021’s combined rate of 5.66%.
• The combined CFPI for November 2022 stood at 4.67%, while the provisional CFPI for December 2022 stood at 4.19%. This shows a significant increase from the December 2022 figure of 4.05%.

Index of Industrial Production for September 2022

Brief about the data:

This index tracks variations in the economy’s level of industrial production. It conveys the tone of the nation’s industrial activity. This index’s base year is 2011–12, and it has a value of one hundred. This index provides a short-term examination of industrial performance in contrast to the annual survey of industries, which provides a complete and detailed picture of industrial activity. 

The three sectors of mining (14.2%), manufacturing (75.5%), and electricity (10.1%) make up the industrial production index. Their relative weights are shown by the values in the brackets. As an alternative, there is a classification of commodities known as “use-based.” – primary goods (34.05%), capital goods (8.22%), intermediate goods (17.22%), infrastructure goods (12.34%), consumer durables (12.84%), and consumer non-durables (15.33%).

Key findings:

• The Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2011–12 is 137.1 for the month of November 2022. In terms of sectors, the mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors’ respective Indices of Industrial Production are 122.7, 136.7 and 166.7 respectively.
• As per the use-based classification, the indices for November 2022 are 132.5 for primary goods, 99.1 for capital goods, 145.6 for intermediate goods, and 159.6 for goods used in infrastructure and construction. Additionally, for the month of November 2022, the consumer durables and non-durables indices are 112.0 and 161.1 respectively.
• Only the mining sector’s performance improved in October 2022 when compared to September 2022. In November 2022, except for the electricity sector, the rest show an improvement in the provisional estimates as compared to October 2022.
• In the April-November 2022 growth over the corresponding period for 2021, the electricity sector tops with 9.8%, followed by general industries, manufacturing, and mining at 5.5%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively.

Payroll Reporting in India – A Formal Employment Perspective

Brief about the report:

Using data on the number of subscribers who have subscribed under three major schemes, namely the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) Scheme, the Employees’ State Insurance (ESI) Scheme, and the National Pension Scheme, this Ministry has been publishing employment-related statistics in the formal sector since April 2018 covering the period from September 2017 onward (NPS). The subscriber counts from several sources could overlap sometimes, which results in differences in the estimates from several sources. The information provides many viewpoints on the level of employment in the nation’s formal sector. It does not, however, quantify employment in a comprehensive way.

Key findings:

• Over 6.09 crore new subscribers joined the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) scheme between September 2017 and July 2022. About 8.99 lakh new subscribers joined the EPF scheme in November 2022 as compared to 7.68 lakh new subscribers in October 2022.
• The data of new members joining EPFO has shown a declining trend from July 2022 till October 2022. Out of 8.99 lakh new members added in November 2022, approximately 56.6% are from the age group of 18-25 years.
• Payroll data analysis by gender reveals that in November 2022, there were 2.26 lakh, new female members, comprising only 25%.
• Between September 2017 and October 2022, 7.64 crore new subscribers joined the Employees State Insurance Corporation scheme. The number of new ESI subscribers during November 2022 was 14.27 lakh, up from 11.93 lakh in October 2022.
• Under the NPS Central Government, State Governments and Corporate schemes, 39.73 lakh new subscribers joined and contributed to the scheme between September 2017 and October 2022.