As per the ISA data, in 1965, the share of Oil, Coal, and Gas in electricity generation stood at 41.6%, 37.4%, and 14.6%, respectively, totalling about 93.4%. By 2022, a total of 82.4% of global electricity generation still being powered by fossil fuels. As of 2022, about 16% of the electricity is generated through renewable sources such as Wind, Solar, and Biomass at 7%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. The ISA report notes that the share of renewable power in electricity generation has increased from 6.5% in 1965 to 13.6% in 2022.
One of the main agendas of the ongoing Conference of Parties (COP29) is for nations to increase the share of Renewable Energy in Electricity Generation and Consumption, to combat Climate Change (CC). The 196 signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement have vowed to limit Global Warming to 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial age by the year 2030. However, recently, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that these ambitions of the Paris Agreement are in great peril with the continuing increase of ocean heating, sea-level rise, and loss of ice, among others. The state of climate update specifically noted that the last decade 2015 to 2024, were the warmest 10 years on record with the mean surface atmosphere temperate rising to about 1.54 degrees above the pre-industrial average, fuelled by ever-increasing Green House Gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere and leading to increasing Climate Change (CC) year after year.
The 16 November 2024 was observed as Energy Day in COP 29, reminding the necessity to scale up the global renewable energy production to three times the current production. The International Solar Alliance (ISA) recently released a report, highlighting progress, shortfalls and issues in solar power generation. The ISA is a collaborative initiative of India and France to combat CC through solar energy initiatives to achieve a $1 trillion investment in solar energy by 2030.
In this story, we look at the global and national scenario in renewable energy production, specifically solar energy, and its progress so far, with data sourced from ISA.
Between 1985 to 2022, Global Electricity Consumption increased by 194%; GHG emissions increased by 84%
A look at the UN’s list of causes for CC leads one to the undeniable truth that CC is essentially caused, driven, and continue to be increased by developmental activities in the modern world. Electricity generation and consumption is at the heart of all developmental activities and is also one of the major contributors to GHG emissions. The ISA report highlights in less than 4 decades, global electricity consumption has increased from less than 10,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) in 1985 to nearly 29,000 TWh in 2022, a 194% increase. Even when compared by types of sources, the global electricity generation by each source has witnessed an increase each year.
As per the UN, the burning and use of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—remain the leading contributors to climate change, accounting for over 75% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that global GHG emissions from the energy sector, driven by fossil fuel combustion, were 14,555 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq) in 1971. This figure rose significantly to 19,007 MtCO2eq in 1985, to 22,261 MtCO2eq in 1995, to 33,241 MtCO2eq in 2005, and reached 34,981 MtCO2eq by 2022. This represents an 84% increase in GHG emissions from 1985 to 2022.
Share of Renewable Power increased, yet 82% of electricity generation is by Fossil Fuels
As per the ISA data, in 1965, the share of Oil, Coal, and Gas in electricity generation stood at 41.6%, 37.4%, and 14.6%, respectively, totalling to about 93.4%. By 2022, the share of Oil and Coal had decreased to 31.8% and 26.9%, respectively, while the share of Gas had risen to 23.7%, resulting in a combined total of 82.4% of global electricity generation still being powered by fossil fuels.
As of 2022, about 16% of the electricity is generated through renewable sources such as Wind, Solar, and Biomass at 7%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. Overall, the ISA report notes that the share of renewable power in electricity generation has increased from 6.5% in 1965 to 13.6% in 2022.
Annual Growth Rate of Solar sees slight decline in the recent years
The ISA published data on the renewable energy installed capacity of 188 countries from the years 2015 to 2022. The data is collected for about 28 different types of renewable power, which is further categorized as Solar and Non-solar energy. The overall growth rate of renewable energy from 2015 to 2022 was around 8-10%, at an average of 9%.
Among the various renewable power sources, Renewable Hydropower, On-grid solar photovoltaic, and Onshore wind energy consistently ranked as the top three in installed capacity each year. Notably, renewable hydropower secured the top spot throughout this period. On-grid solar photovoltaic, which was in third place each year from 2015 to 2019, advanced to the second position from 2020 to 2022.
When comparing the annual growth rates of installed capacity between Solar and Non-solar renewable power, solar energy has experienced a slight decline in recent years, while the growth rate for non-solar renewable power has remained relatively steady. In 2015, the installed capacity for solar power was 2,27,489 MW, and for non-solar renewable power, it was 17,23,984 MW. By 2016, these figures had increased to 2,99,300 MW and 18,19,390 MW, representing growth rates of 32% for solar and 6% for non-solar power from the previous year.
In subsequent years, solar power’s growth rate showed a downward trend: 32% in both 2016 and 2017, followed by 21% in 2018, 20% in 2019, and a slight recovery to 22% in both 2020 and 2022. This marks a decline from the initial 32% in 2016 and 2017 to an average of approximately 21% between 2018 and 2022. In contrast, the growth rate for non-solar renewable power was more stable, fluctuating between 4% and 7%, with an average growth rate of about 5% during the same period.
India sees declining trends in Growth Rates of Renewable Power
India has experienced declining growth rates in renewable power installation in recent years, as per ISA data. In 2015, the total installed renewable power capacity was 83,369 MW, which rose to 95,201 MW in 2016, reflecting a growth rate of 14% from the previous year. The annual growth rates from 2016 to 2022 were 16%, 12%, 8%, 5%, 9%, and 10%, averaging about 10% over the period.
Breaking down the comparison between solar and non-solar power, non-solar renewable growth rates fell from 10% in 2016 to 8% in 2017, then declined to 4% in 2018, 3% in 2019, and stabilized at around 2% from 2020 to 2022. In contrast, solar power saw robust growth in 2016 with a rate of 75%, which climbed to 83% in 2017. However, this momentum slowed, with growth rates of 51% in 2018, 28% in 2019, and further to 12%, 26%, and 27% from 2020 to 2022, respectively. Overall, both solar and non-solar sectors have shown a decline in growth rates compared to the initial surge in 2015.
According to the ISA report, despite a significant recovery post-COVID-19, India’s solar power installed capacity as of 2023 stood at 77 GW, falling short of the targeted 100 GW. The country has set ambitious goals to achieve 500 GW of installed solar power capacity by 2050 and reach net-zero emissions by 2070. The ISA underscores that overcoming the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors will be crucial for India to meet these targets.
Despite progress, the Solar Market/Energy is faced with numerous challenges
Despite significant progress, the solar energy market continues to face numerous challenges. While increasing the share of solar power is a vital strategy for combating climate change, it is just one component of the broader effort. Nations have pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, the UN has noted that progress in this regard has been insufficient.
During COP29, urgent and substantial measures were announced to accelerate the transition toward renewable energy, but achieving the objectives set by the Paris Agreement remains uncertain. The ISA report underscores that the shift to renewable solar energy is hampered by several significant challenges, including the following:
Social, Economic and Environmental barriers: This includes a wide range of factors such as the financial cost of solar, land consumption, the ability of solar to abate Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions, etc.
Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Fossil fuel subsidies are distorting the efficient allocation of resources, which could be otherwise diverted to sustainable solutions that increase social and environmental welfare.
Energy storage solutions: While the capacity of battery storage increased in the past few years, it still falls short of the scale and pace required to support a future energy system. There is a need for long-term energy storage options such as hydrogen to provide weekly or monthly storage capacity.
In addition to the above, the ISA also reported barriers such as financial curtailments, administration issues, and employment, among others, which pose challenges to future expansion goals of solar energy across the globe. Accordingly, it has suggested certain measures which could be adopted to overcome these barriers.
