Data of average monthly retail price of essential commodities shows that the price rise of essential commodities in both January & June was more significant during the 2019-2024 period than the 2014-2019 period. Price of 12 commodities increased by over 40% between January 2019 to 2024 while was not the case for any of the 22 essential commodities between January 2014 and January 2019.
The recent surge in the prices of essential food commodities across India, particularly vegetables has sparked a significant debate. For instance, data from the Telangana State Rythu Bazar, under the Agricultural Marketing Department, shows a notable increase in vegetable prices in June 2024 compared to June 2023. While rising inflation is often cited as a factor in the increasing cost of essential commodities, a recent (February 2024) reply in the Lok Sabha highlighted additional causes for the seasonal volatility in food prices. These include production seasonality, supply chain disruptions, artificial shortages due to hoarding and black marketing, and rising international prices.
In this story, we look at the retail price increases for essential commodities, examining the changes over time and focusing on specific items.
Methodology and Notes
- The data for the story is sourced from Dataful, which has curated and made datasets of daily prices of essential commodities published by the Department of Consumer Affairs (DCA). The analysis in the story is limited to retail prices.
- The state-wise analysis in the story includes the analysis of Union Territories (UTs). Consequently, the term state used in the story includes UTs also.
Significant Increase in the price of Essential Commodities in the last 10 years
The DCA publishes daily and monthly wholesale and retail prices of 22 officially notified essential commodities, including staple vegetables like Tomato, Potato, and Onion. A comparison of average monthly retail prices from January and June in 2014 and 2024 reveals a significant increase across all 22 essential commodities.
Between January 2014 and January 2024, Tur Dal, Urad Dal, and Onion showed the highest price increases per kilogram (kg), rising from ₹70 to ₹150 (115%), ₹64 to ₹123 (90%), and ₹22 to ₹38 (69%) respectively. On the other hand, between June 2014 and June 2024, Tomato, Tur Dal, and Gram Dal had the highest increase, with Tomato rising from ₹18 to ₹42 (134%), Tur Dal from ₹70 to ₹161 (130%), and Gram Dal from ₹47 to ₹88 (88%). Urad Dal and Onion followed closely with price increases of 78% and 74%, respectively.
Among the commodities with the lowest price increase from January 2014 to January 2024 were Potato (25%), Sugar (28%), and Gur (31%). In the case of June 2014 to June 2024, the lowest increase was seen in Sugar (24%), Gur (33%), and Loose Tea (35%), with Potato in the 7th lowest position with a 46% increase.
Notably, in the case of January prices, Tomato ranked 9th among the 22 commodities, with an average price increase from ₹20 to ₹32, a 60% rise from 2014 to 2024. However, in the case of June prices over the same period, Tomato prices surged from ₹18 to ₹42, a 134% increase. From 2019 to 2024, the price rose by 18%, from ₹35 to ₹42. Similarly, Potatoes showed the lowest price rise in January, with a 25% increase from 2014 to 2024, but in June, it increased by 46%.
This pattern of higher price variation between January and June for vegetables like Tomato and Potato underlines the government’s observation in its reply to the Lok Sabha. It attributes this fluctuation to factors such as a reduction in the seasonal cropping area for these vegetables, among others. Additionally, a recent NITI Aayog report highlighted that as of 2019-20, vegetable production in India is 11 million tonnes short of the demand of 199 million tonnes.
Price Variation in States between January & June
Considering that Tomato, Onion and Tur Dal have shown higher price rises during January and June in the years 2014 and 2024, we analysed their prices across states, along with an analysis of Milk and Groundnut Oil, since these 5 food commodities are used commonly across India in all the states. For this analysis, we focused on states showing a price variation of more than ₹10 per kilogram in each of these commodities in January and June during the years 2014, 2019 and 2024.
The analysis showed that for Milk, Onion, and Groundnut Oil, no state exhibited a price variation of over ₹10 between January and June in the years 2014, 2019, and 2024. However, the results for Tomato and Tur Dal were different.
For Tomato, 13 states showed a price increase of over ₹10 between January and June in at least two of the years analysed (2014, 2019, and 2024). In contrast, 8 states showed similar variations for Tur Dal. Specifically, 11 states exhibited an increase of over ₹10 for Tomato, while 2 states showed a decrease of over ₹10. For Tur Dal, none of the 8 states reported a decrease of over ₹10.
Over 25 states reported a rise in price of Tomato and Tur Dal, from 2019 to 2024
Further, the analysis of the number of states reporting price increases or decreases for Tomato, Onion, and Tur Dal in January and June during the years 2014, 2019, and 2024 reveals notable trends.
For Onion, 14 states and 15 states in 2014, 18 states and 14 states in 2019, and 12 states and 19 states in 2024 have shown increases and decreases in prices, respectively, while some states have either remained at the same prices or have not reported data consistently across all years 2014, 2019, and 2024.
For Tomato, 14 and 16 states in 2014, 27 states and 5 states in 2019, and 27 states and 6 states have shown increase and decrease in prices, respectively. Similarly for Tur Dal, 11 states and 14 states in 2014, 29 states and 2 states in 2019, and 32 states and 2 states in 2024 have shown increases and decreases in prices, respectively. In other words, there was a price rise in most states in the case of Tomato and Tur Dal.
Significant Price Rise Observed from 2019 to 2024
The all-India prices of essential commodities during January and June have shown a greater increase between 2019 and 2024 compared to the 2014 and 2019 period.
From January 2014 to January 2019, the prices of 10 out of 22 commodities increased by less than 10% per Kg, while 3 commodities, namely Moong Dal, Potato, and Onion, experienced a price decrease. Nine commodities saw price increases of 10% to 40%, with Gram Dal and Milk experiencing the highest rises at 33% and 21%, respectively. In contrast, from January 2019 to January 2024, all commodities increased by over 15%, with none showing a price decrease. Twelve commodities saw increases of over 40%, and 7 had over 50% increase in price. The highest increase was seen in Onion and Tur Dal, with 110% and 107% rises, respectively. Gur and Sugar had the lowest increase, at 24% and 16%, respectively.
The June prices from 2014 to 2019 showed a price of 9 commodities increasing by less than 10%, while 4 commodities, namely Masoor Dal, Moong Dal, Onion, and Potato, saw price decreases of -4.3%, -5.9%, -8.5%, and -15.6%, respectively. The price of eight commodities increased by over 10%, with Tomato and Gram Dal showing the highest increases at 98% and 40%, respectively. Like January prices, the June 2019 to 2024 prices showed all commodities increasing by over 15%, with none showing a price decrease. Eleven commodities saw increases of over 40%, 6 had increases of over 50%, and 2 had increases of over 90%. Tur Dal and Onion showed the highest increase, at 93% and 91%, respectively. Notably, Tomato had one of the lowest price increases during this period, at 16%, followed by Sugar at 18%.
The data indicates that compared to the period between 2014 and 2019, the price rise of essential food commodities is significant during 2019 and 2024, compared to January or June prices. Though the price rise in food essential commodities is evident, the recent Monthly Household Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) report showed a trend of decreased expenditure on food commodities relative to non-food commodities in both rural and urban areas.
