Review: UN’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 Notes That Progress Since Initial NDCs Plateaued and Countries are Off Track to Deliver on 2030 Pledges
In 2025, countries will submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with mitigation targets for 2035. In this context, the 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows that emissions must fall 42% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels to achieve the 1.5°C target. For 2°C, emissions must fall 28% by 2030. It also notes that most countries’ progress is off track in achieving the targets.
Climate Change (CC) & its impact is a significant issue concerning the world. Recognizing this as a great threat with unprecedented consequences, as part of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNCCC), nations have vowed to take immediate and long-term measures with the objective of limiting Global Warming to 1.5 degrees by 2030, from the pre-industrial era of 1850-1900, more commonly known as the 2015 Paris agreement. As part of this, the signatory nations have agreed to significantly cut down of emissions greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are the primary drivers of CC, and also achieve net zero emissions during different time periods of the 21st century.
Over the last 15 years, the United Nations (UN) organization has been publishing yearly reports titled “Emissions Gap Report (EGP)” on annual GHG emission trends, and the progress of various countries in reducing GHG emissions and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial era. In this story, we look at these aspects, as covered in the latest 2024 EGP, and other reports.
Global GHG Emissions increased to over Pre-Pandemic levels; Over 50% growth from 1990
Numerous anthropogenic activities have led to an increase in the emission of GHGs responsible for CC. An increase in a range of such activities in developmental & infrastructural projects has resulted in the growth in emission of GHGs year after year. As per the EGP report, the total GHG emissions in 1990 was 37.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e). This has increased substantially to 57.1 GtCO2e by 2023, marking over 50% increase in less than four decades.
Notably, all the different types of GHGs such as Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels (Fossil CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), Fluorinated Gases (F-Gases), and Land Use, Land-use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) have shown a substantial increase. The UN notes this phenomenon of increasing GHGs and resultant CC as “The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded history. Warmer temperatures over time are changing weather patterns and disrupting the usual balance of nature. This poses many risks to human beings and all other forms of life on Earth”.
Among major power producing countries, India reported an increase in share of Coal in power production between 2000 & 2023
As per the EGR, Electricity generation historically stands as the highest contributor to GHGs. As of 2023, electricity generation is responsible for 26% of total GHG emissions. In 2022, among three fossil fuels – Coal, Gas, and Oil – used in electricity generation and responsible for GHG emissions, coal stood as the highest contributor with 45% of GHG emissions because of electricity generation. Apart from GHG emissions, Coal is also responsible for a number of harmful adverse effects both on the Environment and People (read here, here & here). For the same reason, countries across the world have vowed to phase out the burning of fossil fuels with a gradual reduction in electricity generation through them.
The EGR compared data from 6 major electricity-producing countries, namely the United States of America, China, India, the European Union (27 member countries), the Russian Federation, and Brazil, which are responsible for 63% of total GHG emissions. Of these countries, while the rest of the countries have shown a reduction in electricity production through Coal from the year 2000 to 2023, India’s share in terms of Coal in power generation increased from about 65% in 2000 to 74% in 2023.
Most countries do not have Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) yet
The Paris Agreement, under Article 4, mandates signatory nations to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These NDCs detail how each country plans to reduce GHG emissions to contribute to the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. Countries are required to submit updated NDCs to the UN approximately every five years, outlining their strategies for reducing GHG emissions and achieving net-zero emissions by their respective target years, which vary by country (e.g., 2045, 2050, etc.). Based on these plans, the EGR assesses the likelihood of nations meeting their targets and the feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Therefore, the EGR emphasizes that NDCs are the foundation of the Paris Agreement, with each submission building on the progress of the previous one.
However, the EGR notes significant gaps. Many countries have yet to submit NDCs, and among those that have, the plans only address measures for reducing 55% of the GHGs driving climate change, leaving the remaining 45% unaddressed. Despite repeated requests, meaningful progress in submitting comprehensive plans has stalled. The EGR also points out that it is unclear how the measures outlined in current NDCs—such as tripling renewable energy capacity or transitioning away from fossil fuels—are strong enough to achieve the stated goals.
The EGR stresses that the next round of NDC submissions presents an opportunity for countries to better account for and transparently enhance their contributions to global climate efforts.
If current policies persist, the median GHG emissions gap would be 24 GtCO2e by 2030 and 48 GtCO2e by 2050
Noting that most countries do not have NDCs and even those submitted by a few of the countries are inadequate, the EGR examined numerous scenarios to estimate global GHG emissions by 2030, 2035 and 2050, and excess GHG emissions (emissions gap) which will prevail and will hinder from achieving the targets of keeping the global warming to around 1.5 degrees and below 2 degrees.
The scenarios considered for estimated global GHG emissions and emission gaps for achieving stated targets are as follows:
As per the above estimates, if current global policies remain unchanged without additional measures, total median GHG emissions are projected to reach 57 GtCO2e by 2030, 57 GtCO2e by 2035, and 56 GtCO2e by 2050. This would result in median emissions gaps of 16 GtCO2e, 21 GtCO2e, and 36 GtCO2e, respectively, required for limiting global warming to below 2°C. For around 1.5°C target, the gaps are even larger, estimated at 24 GtCO2e, 32 GtCO2e, and 48 GtCO2e, respectively.
Under Unconditional and Conditional NDCs, which refer to commitments not reliant on external support (e.g., finance or technology) and those dependent on such support, respectively, the median GHG emissions gap for 2030 is projected to be 14 GtCO2e and 11 GtCO2e for the below 2°C target. For the more ambitious 1.5°C target, the gaps are estimated at 22 GtCO2e and 19 GtCO2e, respectively. Likewise, significant gaps persist for the year 2035.
It is only for the year 2050, with all the conditional NDCs and pledges of net zero emission met, the scenario looks slightly better with emission gaps of -1 GtCO2e for 2°C, yet 11 GtCO2e for 1.5°C. However, if the current policies continue by the same year, the emissions gaps will be 36 GtCO2e for 2°C and 48 GtCO2e for 1.5°C.
Paris Agreement is highly unlikely to be met, global warming on track to about 3°C increase
In response to the question about whether NDCs are on track to meet the Paris Agreement goals, the UN responded as follows:
“Not yet. Countries have made meaningful progress since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Yet, current NDC commitments fall far short of what is needed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C, with current commitments on track for 2.5-2.9ºC of warming. There is also a significant disparity between countries’ existing NDC targets and their actual implementation, meaning emissions will likely be higher in 2030 than current NDCs would imply.”
The findings of EGR are also in line with the above response of the UN. The EGR also reported that a significant disparity exists between the NDC targets and their actual implementation. Along with this, the EGR also reported other issues such as most countries not submitting NDCs, lack of complete and actual information within the NDCs submitted, etc. Such issues support the UN’s finding that emissions will likely be higher than what the NDCs suggest.
Furthermore, the EGR provides projections for likely temperature increases over the 21st century, relative to pre-industrial levels, under various scenarios, as outlined below:
The figures are self-explanatory. Even with all Conditional NDCs and net zero emissions pledges met, there is 90% chance that global warming is going rise to 2.4°C of the pre-industrial levels, whereas it is 3°C and above in other scenarios. Coincidentally, the Ministry of Earth and Science (MoES) in its report on CC impact in India has projected a temperature rise of 4.4°C by the end of the 21st century, relative to the average temperature between 1976 and 2015.
Given these projections, the EGR emphasizes that achieving the Paris Agreement targets is highly unlikely under current trajectories. Hence, it strongly urged nations to enhance their performance across various dimensions. Specifically, the report highlights the increase in GHG emissions from the aviation sector, noting that ambitious climate goals are unattainable without addressing and managing demand levels. Similarly, it calls for a critical global evaluation of demand reduction strategies across all sectors contributing to GHG emissions and CC.