Data: Large Cities way ahead on Vaccination compared to the rest of the State

• Bharath Kancharla

As observed in our earlier story, the vaccination coverage in urban areas of the country was more than in rural areas. Further analysis of the data related to 53 large cities substantiates this trend. Large cities & Metros are way ahead on the vaccination coverage compared to the rest of the state.

As part of our vaccine data analysis in an earlier story, it was observed that the urban-majority districts have higher rates of vaccination compared to the rural-majority districts. Even among the rural-majority districts, those districts with a city or a major town in their jurisdiction, tend to have a higher vaccination coverage compared to the other rural-majority districts. 

In this story, we delve further into the vaccination coverage across the major urban centres in the country compared to their population share. 

Methodology: 

• The Urban centres that we have considered for analysis are the 53 Cities with above 1 million population as per the 2011 Census (as considered in NRCB’s CII reports). These include 19 Metropolitan cities which have more than 2 million population and the rest of the 34 cities.
• The Co-WIN data for vaccination is provided district-wise. Hence, we have considered the districts that include these cities. It has to be noted that there could be adjoining rural areas in these districts beyond the specified city limits. However, since city-wise vaccination data is not available, we have relied on the district information for the purpose of this analysis. 
• Few of the cities are spread over multiple districts. Such districts of which the respective city is a major part are considered together for the analysis.
• As is the case in earlier stories, the population growth rate as calculated from the State-wise population projection as of 01 October 2020 provided by the Central Government. The population of each district as per the 2011 Census is extrapolated using the growth rate of the respective States/UT to make a projection of the current population.
• Vaccination coverage implies the percentage of the population that has received at least one dose of the vaccine unless specified. 

Vaccination coverage in these 53 cities is higher than that of the overall vaccination coverage in their states

The 53 cities considered are spread across 19 states in the country. As per the latest Co-WIN information available as of the morning of 07 June 2021, the vaccination coverage is 16.49 crores across these 19 states. This constitutes around 13% of the total population of these states. 

A total of 5.49 crore persons are vaccinated across the 53 cities that are being analysed. This constitutes around 19% of the population within these districts that the 53 cities are a part of.  This confirms the significantly higher vaccination coverage (a difference of about 6%) in these urban centres compared to the rest of the districts in these states. If the districts comprising the cities are excluded, the vaccination coverage in these 19 states falls to 11.6% of the population, which is less than the national average.  

These cities are home to 33% of vaccinated population while they have 23% of the total population 

The total projected population of the districts with these 53 cities is 28.97 crores whereas the total population of the 19 states that these districts are part of is around 123.7 crores. In other words, the districts with these cities constitute about 23% of the total population of these 19 states. 

As highlighted earlier, the total vaccination coverage in these states is 16.49 crores, of these nearly 33.3% of those vaccinated i.e., around 5.49 crores belong to the districts with these 53 cities. In other words, the districts with these 53 cities are home to 1/3rd of the total vaccinated population while their share in the total population is only around 23%. The rest of the districts in these states account for 77% of the total population but are home to only 67% of the total vaccinated population in these states. 

Tamil Nadu, M.P & Telangana among the states with larger variation between cities & rest of the State

With the exception of Kerala and Jammu & Kashmir, the rest of the 17 states with these cities conform to the trend, where the proportion of vaccination in these cities is higher than their share of the population.

Here is a State-wise snapshot: 

• Tamil Nadu has 4 such cities on the list. The districts with these cities account for around 19% of the total population in the state. However, the districts with these cities make up more than 39% of the total vaccinated population of the state. This is the state with the highest disparity between the share of the population in the districts with these cities and the vaccination coverage. 
• Madhya Pradesh & Telangana, occupy the next two places in terms of a greater share of the vaccinated population in the districts with these cities compared to their population share. 
• Madhya Pradesh also has 4 cities on this list with more than 1 million population as per the 2011 Census). The districts with these cities make up nearly 14% of the State’s population, while their share in the vaccinated population is more than 28%. 
• Telangana has its capital city of Hyderabad as the only urban region in this list. The districts with the Hyderabad Metropolitan region constitute 26.3% of Telangana’s population, while their share in the vaccinated population of the state is close to 40%.
• Another state which is influenced by the presence of a large Metro is Karnataka. Even this state only has Bengaluru among the large cities. The districts with Bengaluru Metropolitan comprise around 17% of the State’s population, while accounts for 28% of the state’s vaccinated population. 
• U.P, West Bengal, Maharashtra & Jharkhand are among the other states with a sizeable difference between the share of the population of the districts with these cities and their respective share in the vaccinated population of the state. 
• In contrast, the proportion of the population that got vaccinated in the cities of Kerala is lesser than their share of the total population. This could be due to equal vaccine coverage in the state, and also due to the fact that these cities not mega-cities as in case of Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai or Hyderabad in other states. 
• These factors could also be the influencers of the lesser difference in population-vaccination proportions observed in A.P. Punjab, Bihar, etc. 
• Delhi & Chandigarh are both 100% urban and hence the urban coverage is 100%. 

Large Metros report a higher variation between proportion of population & vaccination 

While it is evident that the share of the vaccinated population in the districts with these cities is higher than the share of their population, the difference is starker in the case of the large metros. 

Districts with Mumbai constitute 13.4% of Maharashtra’s population while they are home to 17.4% of the vaccinated population in the state. Another large city in the state i.e., Pune, constitutes 8.3% of the population and 13% of the vaccinated population in the state. In other words, the districts with these two cities comprise around 22% of the state’s population but account for 40% of Maharashtra’s vaccinated population.

The case of Hyderabad as highlighted earlier is also similar. The districts with Hyderabad account for 26% of Telangana’s population but are home to 40% of Telangana’s vaccinated population. The same is the case with Bengaluru as highlighted above. 

Districts with Kolkata have nearly 25% of West Bengal’s vaccinated population, but their share in the state’s population is around 16%. Chennai district constitutes only around 7% of the State’s population but home to 21% of the state’s vaccinated population. 

Urban Centres & Metros way ahead in Vaccination Coverage

The analysis of these 53 cities further substantiates the trends observed in the earlier story, that there is a considerable skew towards urban areas in terms of vaccination coverage. Even among urban areas, the large cities & metros are way ahead of the rest of the state. While the skew is understandable because of the dense population & larger incidence of COVID-19 in these cities, the difference in vaccination coverage between these cities & the rest of the districts in the states is concerning. It is time for the governments to ensure a more even distribution since the second wave has also hit the rural parts of many of these states. 

Featured Image: Vaccination Coverage in Indian States