COVID-19 2nd Wave: What do the numbers look like in UP, Delhi, AP and other states?

• Bharath Kancharla

In continuation of our previous story on the 2^nd wave of COVID and the broad trends in Maharashtra, Karnataka & Kerala, we look at the states of UP, Delhi, AP, Tamil Nadu and others in this story. Each state is reporting a different trend on various parameters. Here are the details. 

After reporting more than 4 lakh new COVID-19 cases in a single day on 30 April 2021, the number of daily news has been less than 4 lakh in the last few days.  As highlighted in the previous story analyzing the trends in few of the states, this slight decrease can be attributed to an extent to the fall in number of cases in Maharashtra. The state continues to report a downward trend and is expected to further improve with specific lockdown measures in continuation of the earlier lockdown initiated based on the prevailing situations in different cities & districts. 

Meanwhile, the lockdown measures initiated in Karnataka starting 27 April 2021, have not yet shown a discernible impact on the COVID-19 case numbers, with the state reporting second-ever highest single day COVID-19 positive cases on 04 May 2021. As for Kerala, the trend highlighted in the earlier story continues, with around 37 thousand cases reported on 04 May after lower numbers were reported over the weekend. 

Apart from these states, there are other states that are reporting relatively higher numbers on a daily basis. In this second part of the story, we take a look at few of these states. 

In UP, the number of new daily cases shows a decline, but deaths are increasing 

The most populated state in the country, Uttar Pradesh (UP) currently has the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases with around 13.68 lakh cases reported so far. When compared to the first wave, the number of new daily cases being reported in the state is more prominent among the states. 

The state reported a 7-day average of around 1.3 thousand cases by the beginning of April 2021, which increased by nearly 10 times by mid-April. By the end of April 2021, around 34 thousand cases per day were being reported. In fact, the highest number of cases in UP were reported on 29 April 2021 when more than 35 thousand new cases were reported.

Since then, the number of new cases has seen a declining trend with around 25 thousand cases reported on 04 May 2021.  

• As is the case with few other states, the declining numbers do not directly correlate with any fall in the number of tests being conducted. A total of 2.97 lakh tests were conducted on 02 May, the highest in a single day. However, the number of tests conducted over the next two days fell to 2.29 & 2.08 lakhs respectively. It is to be seen if the decline in the number of tests continues over the next few weeks.  
• The Case Positivity Rate (CPR) is currently around 13% and shows a declining trend since last week of April 2021, when it peaked to around 19%. 
• The more remarkable trend in UP is with regards to the number of recoveries being reported since the beginning of May 2021, thereby bringing down the number of active cases. 
• While these indicators show a positive picture, the same cannot be said about the number of deaths being reported. The number of deaths has shown an increasing trend despite the reduction in new cases & increase in recoveries. A total of 351 deaths were reported on 04 May 2021, the highest in the state since the beginning of the pandemic. 

It has to be noted that these trends are based on the information furnished by the official government sources. However, there are news reports of under-reporting in UP as is the case many other states.  The official available data for UP indicates that the state may be in early phases of recovery akin to the trend observed in Maharashtra. 

Delhi shows early signs of flattening with fewer cases and increased recoveries 

One of the states which has been always in the news during the second wave of COVID-19 is Delhi. Being the National Capital Region, the situation in Delhi has received prominent national & international media coverage. 

This does reflect in the numbers being reported by the official sources. The state started reporting around 10 thousand daily cases by 10 April 2021. It has to be noted that only around one thousand new daily cases were being reported during the last week of March 2021. By the last week of April, the 7-day average for the number of new daily cases was around 25 thousand i.e., an increase of 25 times within a month.  Currently the average is around 22 thousand cases in a day. 

• Delhi started reported fewer tests since mid-of April. The 7-day average around that period was 99 thousand tests a day. This has subsequently fallen to around 75 thousand tests a day. 
• During April, there was an increase in the number of new daily cases reported in the state. The double whammy of fewer tests and more new cases is evident in the CPR, which increased from 12.5% in mid-April to 32.4% by end of the month. However, the last few days have seen fewer cases being reported along with a declining trend in the CPR.  
• The number of recoveries has seen an increasing trend over the last few days. Even the number of deaths has seen a slight decrease. If the trends persist, Delhi could have crossed its peak during the current wave. Despite being one of the states with higher COVID-19 numbers, Delhi currently has less than 1 lakh active patients. 

A.P & Tamil Nadu still reporting an increasing trend of new COVID-19 cases 

Apart from Karnataka, which is yet to reach its peak, two other southern states i.e., Andhra Pradesh (AP) & Tamil Nadu (TN) are also reporting an increasing trend of COVID-19 cases. 

Despite the similarity in the broad trends, variances do exist between the two states on various other indicators. 

Andhra Pradesh 

• AP is currently reporting a 7-day average of around 18.5 thousand new daily cases, nearly twice the number reported in the beginning of last week of April.
• Unlike few other states, there is no reduction in the number of tests conducted. Currently, around 1.15 lakh tests are being conducted daily, which is the highest so far.  And this number is only increasing. 
• The CPR was highest around the beginning of April last week with 22.6% which has since reduced to around 18% by the end of April. 
• However, over the past few days, the CPR again shows an increasing trend with the increase in the new cases. 
• Meanwhile, the fatality rate remains lower compared to other states with around 70-80 deaths per day. However, as is the case with Kerala, the number of deaths has doubled over the past 7-10 days. 

Tamil Nadu 

• The state reported its highest-ever single day COVID-19 cases with 21.2 thousand on 04 May 2021 with the 7-day average being at around 19 thousand cases. Similar to AP, the numbers are increasing. 
• The number of tests being conducted is also witnessing an increasing trend with an average of 1.4 lakh tests being conducted every day currently.  
• The CPR though is lower compared to most of the other states. Even then, it is increasing and touched 13.7% on 04 May 2021.  
• The number of deaths due to COVID-19 has seen an increasing trend despite comparably lower numbers, akin to Kerala & AP.

Based on the trends for both AP & TN, it can be said that the states are yet to reach their peak.  The recent State election activity in Tamil Nadu could be a contributing factor for the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the state. 

Tamil Nadu has recently come-up with new lockdown rules, so is the case with Andhra Pradesh which has come up with more stringent lockdown measures. It remains to be seen if these lockdown measures would eventually ensure reduction in the case numbers. 

W.B & Chhattisgarh show higher recoveries in proportion to the new cases, while the number of tests in Telangana has reduced 

Apart from these states, here is a snapshot of other prominent and larger states that have reported higher COVID-19 numbers: 

• There is a spike in the number of new cases being reported in West Bengal (WB) from around mid-April. From around 5-6 thousand new daily cases during that period, it has reached around 17 thousand new daily cases. Like with most other states, the number of cases was around 1 thousand at the beginning of April 2021.  The assembly election activity in the state could be a major reason for the increase in number of cases.  However, the number of recoveries is at par with the new cases, which is a positive sign. 

• Since the beginning of the second wave, Chhattisgarh has been among the states which reported a higher number of COVID-19 cases. The number of new daily cases being reported is still increasing.  Similar to WB, the number of recoveries is also at par with the new cases being reported on a daily basis. The number of recoveries is averaging around 12-13 thousand cases, compared to around 15 thousand new cases a day. 

• Most of the states with large cities i.e., Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Karnataka, etc. are among the states with higher COVID-19 numbers. However, Telangana despite being home to Hyderabad has been reporting a comparably lower number of cases. The state currently reports around 6-7 thousand new cases per day and is reporting lower compared to last week of April 2021. This could be attributed to the fall in the number of tests being conducted. Prior to the last week of April 2021, Telangana was averaging around 1 lakh tests per day, which currently stands at around 70 thousand tests in a day. 

This is a snapshot of a few of the states reporting higher numbers. While lower numbers are being reported in the last few days, it remains to be seen if the trend holds in the coming weeks. 

With few of the major states starting to peak, we could witness an increase in cases in the coming few days to weeks.  However, concerns remain about under-reporting & reduced testing in states. 

Featured Image: COVID-19 2nd Wave