Between 1947 & 2017, the Muslim population in India did not increase from 3 crore to 30 crore; it increased by about five times between 1951 & 2011
A post (here & here) claiming that the Muslim population in India has increased tenfold, from 3 crore to 30 crore, over 70 years between 1947 and 2017, is going viral on social media. Through this article let’s fact-check the claim made in the post.
Claim: Over 70 years from 1947 to 2017, the Muslim population in India increased tenfold, from 3 crore to 30 crore.
Fact: Between 1947 and 2017, the Muslim population in India did not increase tenfold from 3 crore to 30 crore; it grew by approximately five times between 1951 and 2011. According to official Census data, the Muslim population in India was around 3.54 crore (9.9% of India’s total population) in 1951, and around 17.22 crore (14.2% of India’s total population) in 2011. Between 1951 and 2011, India’s total population increased by about 3.5 times, the Hindu population by about 3.2 times, and the Muslim population by about five times. However, the country’s population growth rate has been declining since 1991, with the growth rate of most religious groups also decreasing. Hence the claim made in the post is MISLEADING.
There is no official data to determine the exact Muslim population in 1947. After independence, the Government of India conducted its first Census in 1951 to determine the population of India. The most recent Census was conducted in 2011. Since there is no official data on the Muslim population either in 1947 or 2020, we referred to the Government of India’s 1951 and 2011 Census data. We then visited the Government of India’s censusindia.gov.in website and reviewed the 1951 Census data. According to the 1951 Census, the Muslim population in India was around 3.54 crore, and the percentage of Muslims in India’s total population was about 9.9%.
According to the 2011 Census, the total population of India in 2011 was 121.09 crore, of which the Muslim population was approximately 17.22 crore, constituting around 14.2% of India’s total population. The Hindu population was 96.63 crore, the Christian population was 2.78 crore, the Sikh population was 2.08 crore, the Buddhist population was 84 lakhs, and the Jain population was 45 lakhs. The Census data shows that India’s population growth rate during the decade 2001–2011 was 17.7%, with the growth rates for different religious groups during the same period as follows: Hindus: 16.8%; Muslims: 24.6%; Christians: 15.5%; Sikhs: 8.4%; Buddhists: 6.1%; and Jains: 5.4% (here). The growth rate of various religious groups declined during the decade 2001–2011 compared to the previous decade. The growth rate of the Hindu population decreased from 19.92% to 16.8%, while the Muslim population growth rate experienced a sharp decline, dropping from 29.52% to 24.60%. During the same period, the Christian population growth rate was 15.5%, the Sikh population growth rate was 8.4%, and the Jain population growth rate stood at 5.4% (here).
According to the 2011 Census data, between 2001 and 2011, the share of the Hindu population of the total population declined by 0.7 percentage points (PP). The proportion of the Sikh population decreased by 0.2 PP, and the Buddhist population declined by 0.1 PP during the decade from 2001 to 2011. The proportion of the Muslim population to the total population increased by 0.8 PP. There was no significant change in the proportion of Christians and Jains.
In July 2023, in response to a question raised by Mala Roy in the Lok Sabha regarding the Muslim population of India, the then Minority Affairs Minister, Smriti Zubin Irani stated, ‘As per Census 2011, Muslim population is 17.22 crore which constitutes 14.2% of the total population of the country. As per the report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, July 2020, National Commission on Population, country’s projected population in 2023 stands at 138.82 crore. Accordingly, applying the same proportion of 14.2%, as was there in Census 2011, projected population of Muslims in 2023 would stand at 19.75 crore.’
According to the report ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)’ released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) in May 2024, the share of the Hindu population in India’s total population decreased by 7.82% (from 84.68% to 78.06%) between 1950 and 2015. During the same period, the share of the Muslim population in India’s total population increased by 4.25% (from 9.84% to 14.09%), the share of the Christian population increased by 0.12% (from 2.24% to 2.36%), the share of the Sikh population increased by 0.11% (from 1.74% to 1.85%), and the share of the Buddhist population increased from 0.05% (in 1950) to 0.81% (in 2015). Meanwhile, the share of Jains in India’s population decreased from 0.45% (in 1950) to 0.36% (in 2015), and the Parsi population decreased by 85%, from 0.03% (in 1950) to 0.004% (in 2015).
According to various Census reports, the percentage of the Muslim population in India is gradually increasing. However, as mentioned in the viral post, the Muslim population did not reach 30 crore by 2017, nor did it increase by ten times between 1947 and 2017. In reality, the Muslim population increased by about five times between 1951 and 2011. Additionally, India’s total population grew by about 3.5 times between 1951 and 2011, while the Hindu population increased by about 3.2 times during the same period.
It should be noted that India’s total population increased significantly from 1951 to 2011, with the populations of most religious groups in India, including Muslims, also showing an increase. However, reports indicate that since 1991, the population growth rate in India has been gradually declining. Similarly, the population growth rate of various religious groups has also experienced a decline.
According to the recent National Family Health Survey 2019, the fertility rate among Muslims is higher than that of other religious groups. Analysis of various National Family Health Survey reports shows that while the fertility rate among Muslims is higher compared to other religions, data from the past two decades indicates a significant decline in the fertility rate among Muslims. In fact, the fertility rate among Muslims has decreased more than any other religious groups. The Muslim fertility rate was 4.4 in the first NFHS (1992-93) but has since decreased to 2.4 in the fifth NFHS (2019-21).
The US-based Pew Research Center estimated in 2015 that Muslims will constitute approximately 18.4% of India’s population by 2050 (here).
To sum it up, between 1947 and 2017, the Muslim population in India did not increase from 3 crore to 30 crore; it increased by approximately five times between 1951 and 2011.